Sold 40% of my UNG position during today's giant 7% gain, as Natural Gas storage numbers according to the EIA came in less than analyst expectations. eia Output, rig count, and drilling down nearly ~50% yoy according to a cnbc report...is this 40 cent move attributed to short covering? Of course, so tomorrow through next week will be vital to see whether these levels can be held...I initiated this position on June 16th at a price of $15.87 and have averaged down the falling knife ever since.. I must look back to my investment thesis of a possible abc bottoming pattern on heavy volume and the fundamental aspect that nat gas was at its highest spread in relation to crude oil since the early 1990's.
UNG 1 year, note the spike in volume in mid June UNG
Where to from here? Maybe a run to the 50dma, i will not be greedy, i will continue to average out and raise my stops as I do not foresee a forthcoming improvement in nat gas fundamentals...once again i am too early to the party
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Back to posting
Havent posted since March 19th which coincedentally nearly aligns with the March lows and the subsequent 3-month bear market rally that followed, a rally that is retreating with each passing day...Apparently Easter weekend was the cure all for banking sector's woes...Earnings season will bring volatility back to the market place as the economic deterioration further materializes into company balance sheets...Is the bottom in? I believe so because I dont think that the market would give that many investors who have been on the sidelines since March the second chance of a lifetime. Economic indicators are improving but expectations for this recovery are still very elevated.
I have been thinking about purchasing on a longer term basis. I would love to initiate positions in companies with growing ties to China but not within the grasp of the Shangai Stock Exchange.. Ideas include Brazilian Petrobras (PBR $35.79), YUM! Brands ~$34, as well as in the Ag space via DBA or MOS ... I will begin to purchase these companies intermittenly if the major indexes and commodities continue to pull back..
Focus on: Bellwethers Fed Ex & Cisco Systems, as well as bank writeoffs in each banking division
I have been thinking about purchasing on a longer term basis. I would love to initiate positions in companies with growing ties to China but not within the grasp of the Shangai Stock Exchange.. Ideas include Brazilian Petrobras (PBR $35.79), YUM! Brands ~$34, as well as in the Ag space via DBA or MOS ... I will begin to purchase these companies intermittenly if the major indexes and commodities continue to pull back..
Focus on: Bellwethers Fed Ex & Cisco Systems, as well as bank writeoffs in each banking division
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