Richard Duncan's "The Dollar Crisis". 2003

Is the most accurate and sober analysis of what has and will come to fruition in the economy and subsequent capital markets. This book published in 2003 has provided detailed analysis into how the housing and credit markets will unravel(and did) and how the NPR II (New Paradigm Recession; End of the American Consumer) will make the 2001-2 recession feel like a walk in the park...He predicts (accurately) that the government will step in and bail out financial institutions and firms which will only prolong the inevitable...A few exerpts from Chapter 9, Global Recession: Why, When, and How Hard? follow...the only thing Mr. Duncan miscalculated was the year (2004-5) which makes our problems all the more troubling

"The outlook for the global economy is profoundly disturbing. During the 1990's, the booming U.S economy served as the world's engine of economic growth. Surging credit expansion in the United States allowed businesses to increase their investments and consumers to boost their consumption, producing the longest uninterrupted economic advance on record."

"The U.S's trading partners expanded their industrial capacity to meet U.S demand, and rising investment allowed increasing consumption as well. U.S demand for imported goods meant more jobs. more corporate profits, and more economic growth throughout the rest of the world" Think New Paradigm

"All that is coming to an end. The over-indebted American economy has entered a recession that is likely to be as extreme and prolonged as the economic boom that proceeded it. The downturn began in 2001 with a sharp fall in U.S private investment. The repercussions of that reduction in investment-primarily technology related investment-were felt around the world. Despite the fall off in investment and rising unemployment, consumption in the United States remained robust in 2001 and 2002, providing a crutch for the wounded economy. A rapid reduction in interest rates to 40 year lows enabled the American consumers to continue increasing their indebtedness and their consumption. Future developments, however, will show that this aggressive monetary easing was nothing more than a palliative that merely prolonged and exacerbated the disequilibrium in the economy. The second, and more profound, phase of this recession will result in a steep decline in personal consumption. The American consumer is over indebted and will soon be forced to curtail the profligate behavior he embraced during the 1980s and 1990s. The downturn in consumption will cause a further reduction in investment. Falling U.S imports will throw the world into recession.

Mr. Duncan also goes into detail about the unsustainable Current Account deficits, they cannot continue to expand because they are deflationary in nature and undermine corporate profitability around the world by facilitating over investment and excess capacity. (think new cars in lots, new homes barren, a glut of consumer and business products)

I can go on and on with exerpts from just this one chapter but if you are interested in more of his analysis I suggest picking up this book...be prepared for the worst however...