I thought today's tape was going to be red from the opening but I was delighted to sell into strength early this afternoon...I thought that Friday's tape (249) was a premonition of what is to come over the next 2-3 quarters i.e aversion from the "risk trade" that has taken hold since early march.. I too was caught up in the short dollar buy risk trade, as commodity related equity positions such as PBR, MOS, SLB seemed like they would reflate forever..I have since paired these positions down to a miniscule amount, and kept my two overweight positions of MO and MCD intact as I believe they will outperform my aamazzing 1.15% mmy going forward.
My head is still digesting the hours of reading I have put in over the past two days, as I felt Friday was the start of an inflection point in the markets (equity,commodity,currency,gold) and a "relative" end to the March 7th buy risk trade. As I type this today's tape is now red, erasing an earlier 130 pt gain in the Dow.
There are many Macro Variables that are behind my reasoning which I will try to break down in my next post. With so much "noise" in the financial markets and accompanying literature I must trust those whom make sound macro economic sense..
Today's Hat tip; Bob Janjuah
Read Bob Here
Market Sentiment: Raise Cash
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